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Hello Altair.
I agree with your post 18. Common sense.
However, re the "problem" paragraph from post 19 which you have quoted in your post 20:-
The paragraphs which follow that that particular paragraph in my post 19 are an attempt to illustrate how important and relevant this "problem" became and remains to the efforts to establish consensus regarding the remedial actions considered necessary.
Not imo an abstract issue at all but highlighting a characteristic of prediction necessarily based initially on probability etc etc.
cheers.
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