[OPVerma]

Let us do some analysis before working out a formula ;

PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH writes in his title 'Decision Points' ( pp 34 )

" I have't had a drop of alcohol since that night at the Broadmoor in 1986.There is no way to know where my life would have headed if I had't made the decision to quit drinking. But I am certain that I would not be recording these thoughts as former Governor of Texas and President of the US."

He was elected President despite far less popular votes (first term).

2. President Trump during his campaign truthfully accepted that he had several affairs in past ...and many ...dificiencies . He won despite less popular votes.

3. Al Gore lost election as he was in company of Bill Clinton , and subsequently Hillary lost election as she accepted donations from Arab Countries.

Not the popular votes but Nature decides the head of states as per its laws. Without going in details that would make a' Nature's Bio-Laws' like book, a simple scientific formula could be as such :

Let , Winning the the US Presidential Election = W , is a function of Truthfulness -T, minus Falsehood F + Oratory / Articulation skill O ; Dissociation with Vice / Malice M.

Hence

W = f ( T - F+ O -M )

The Presidential Candidate should evaluate himself vis-a- vis his opponent by giving marks on each component and compare. If he scores better than his opponent, the Nature would definitely elect him.